Abercrombie & Fitch - ANF - cls: 24.71 chng: -0.17 stp: 25.25

Here we are two full weeks past ANF's big breakdown under the $24 support level and the stock has battled its way right back into the $24-25 area and held its ground right into the end of the year. Clearly the play has been a disappointment -- showing enough weakness on a daily basis to keep us interested, yet steadily gaining ground since the lows posted on 12/15. Monday's session looked pretty bullish, with the stock managing to finally close over the 10-dma (now at $24.53). The bulls followed that up yesterday with a move through the 20-dma (now at $24.57) at the close. In fact, the early strength this morning gave the appearance that our $25.25 stop was in jeopardy. Fortunately, the bears prevailed and it looks like the long-expected rollover may be getting underway. While aggressive traders can certainly enter on this nascent rollover, the more prudent course of action will be to wait for a break under $24.40, which would constitute a break of the 2-week rising trendline. We're still looking for ANF to head significantly lower, and renewed weakness in the Retail index (RLX.X) should help to get things moving in the right direction. For traders looking to open new positions, wait for the RLX to at least break back under its 50-dma ($377) before playing.

Picked on December 14th at $24.59 Change since picked +0.12 Earnings Date 2/17/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 2.24 mln Link to Current Quote ANF