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New Play - High Risk/Reward
Sunday, January 23rd, 2005

Short (Bearish) Play


  Nuveen Investments - JNC
cls: 37.35 chg: -1.07 stop: 39.01

Company Description:
Nuveen Investments provides high-quality investment services designed to secure long-term client goals. The Company serves institutional clients, financial advisors and high-net-worth investors. The firm's asset management capabilities are marketed through four distinct brands, each with an independent investment team and area of expertise: Nuveen, focused on fixed-income investments; NWQ, specializing in value-style equities; Rittenhouse, dedicated to conservative growth-style equities; and Symphony, with expertise in alternative investment portfolios. In total, the Company manages over $115 billion in assets. Nuveen Investments, Inc. is an affiliate of The St. Paul Travelers Companies, Inc. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Before we begin let us remind our readers that this is a high-risk/reward play. Normally we strongly suggest picking a top in stocks because it can be hazardous to your financial health. We're willing to speculate on some short-term weakness in spite of JNC's current up trend based on the following observations. First the XBD broker-dealer index began to roll over a few weeks ago and the recent bounce failed with what looks like a tweezer top. The XBD's weekly chart also shows its MACD indicator rolling over towards a new sell signal from overbought levels. If the sector index looks poised for more declines then JNC could easily see some profit taking. The company just recently reported its Q4 earnings that were very strong but the reaction in the stock price was an intraday spike. It seems the strong performance has already been baked into the stock after a huge run from $25 in August to almost $40 in December. The recent high-volume drop has also produced a breakdown below the 21-dma, where shares had found support during the last couple of months. In spite of these bearish developments we're still going to use a TRIGGER to try and confirm the breakdown. There is minor support near $37.00 and we want to open shorts only if JNC trades at $36.90 or below. Our initial target is a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement to the $34.00 level, which happens to be underpinned by the 100-dma. Our stop is a little wide to begin with but we'll adjust it after the play is triggered.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date         00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       65 thousand

Link to Current Quote JNC   NEWS   Zacks on JNC

 

 

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