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Bearish Play Updates Sunday, July 06, 2003

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 12.53 chg: -0.09 stop: 13.55

Another day of weakness was the score for our HGSI play, but not by much. With the Biotechnology index (BTK.X) sliding lower by just over 0.5%, the stock just didn't have enough direction from the sector to either advance or decline by very much. The 10-dma (now at $12.70) is continuing to provide closing resistance, and it appears something will have to give way soon. We're still expecting a breakdown below $12, which ought to have the stock seeking out its 200-dma ($10.23), but that doesn't mean there won't be some more volatility first. Strong resistance now exists in the $13.25-13.45 area, and this is reinforced by the 50-dma ($13.37), with the 20-dma ($13.61) picking up speed to the downside and likely to add further pressure next week. Failed rallies below the 50-dma still look favorable for new entries, although more conservative traders may want to wait for a decisive break below $12 before adding new positions. If entering on a breakdown, look for confirmation of weakness from the BTK index threatening its own 50-dma ($427). Maintain stops at $13.55.


Picked on June 18th at    $13.43
Change since picked        -0.90
Earnings Date           07/24/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     3.07 mln

Link to Current Quote HGSI



 

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