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Bullish Play Updates Wednesday, September 03, 2003

Tower Automotive - TWR - cls: 4.64 chng: +0.09 stop: 4.24*new*

Last Friday's bullish action was definitely a sign of things to come, as TWR followed through with a powerful breakout on Tuesday. Starting with an initial dip to test support at the 10-dma (now $4.27), the stock rebounded from the $4.25 level and pushed as high as $4.59, before settling just a few pennies below that level. The bullish action continued on Wednesday, with the stock moving through the $4.60 level and closing just a penny below its intraday high. Both days this week have seen strong volume, and it looks like the bulls are intent on at least testing our initial profit target of $4.80. Conservative traders should look to harvest gains when that level is reached, while those willing to hold on a bit longer should exit at our final target of $5.00. TWR is already up more than 13% from our picked price, so our focus now turns to protecting and maximizing gains. Raise stops to $4.24, which is a penny below yesterday's intraday low and is also below the 10-dma, which should provide solid support on any intraday pullback.


Picked on August 10th at   $4.10
Change since picked        +0.54
Earnings Date           10/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =     539 K


Link to Current Quote TWR



Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 40.37 change: -0.84 - stop: 38.49

Tuesday, China's Ministry of Information Industry, the country's telecoms regulator, announced that 3G licenses should be available by the end of the year. Presumably, the Ministry will first decide whether it will use the European standard advanced by QCOM or a Chinese-developed standard. The Ministry has not always been clear about its plans. In addition, Lehman lowered the telecom sector to marketweight in their Strategy Growth Portfolio.

QCOM dipped on larger-than-average daily volume Tuesday although the NWX, the networking index, and the XTC, the North American Telecommunications Index, both gained. Wednesday repeated the pattern with QCOM printing an ominous bearish engulfing candle not matched by the bullish patterns on those two indices.

We think QCOM pulls back to establish recent resistance as new support, a normal occurrence. QCOM is likely to find that support at the confluence of the rising 10-dma and the neckline of its inverse H&S, with those levels of support converging near the psychologically important $40.00. If that level does not hold as support, next support is offered by historical support/resistance and the rising 21-dma near $38.50. We've placed our stop just below this second tier of support. New entries could be found on a bounce from anywhere above $40.00. If momentum entries are sought, look for a break above this week's high.

Annotated Chart for QCOM:

Picked on Aug 27 at  41.00
Change since picked: -0.63
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 	10 million


Link to Current Quote QCOM



 

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