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Bullish Play Updates Wednesday, September 17, 2003

Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.41 chng: +0.00 - stop: 8.84*new*

The DFI, the Amex Defense Index, lost 0.49 percent Wednesday, dragging down many defense-related issues. While ORB closed flat, its pattern was different. It produced a small-bodied white candle that rose from the day's opening. We noticed, too, that volume was strong as ORB climbed off its lows, with a high-volume spike at the end of the day.

ORB appears to be consolidating as it usually does before climbing inside its ascending channel. Near the end of its consolidation, ORB often dips for a couple of days, and that may happen this time, too. ORB usually finds support on those dips at either its 21-dma, shown in blue on the chart, or its 30-dma, not shown. We've placed our new stop at $8.84, just below the 30-dma. Those seeking a new entry could enter on a bounce from anywhere above $9.00.

Annotated Chart for ORB:

Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.23
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand

Link to Current Quote ORB

Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 44.24 change: -0.65 - stop: 41.95

Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Edelstone issued a statement on the chip sectors, and also continued his recommendation of QCOM as one of his "global best ideas." The stock gained 1.47 percent. Tuesday, QCOM muddied the outlook with a statement deemed "mixed" by commentators. Q4 and FY04 results should be at the high end of the range the company set in July, but some analysts were already expecting QCOM to report at the high end of the range. Sales of 23 million new subscriber units in the CDMA product will be slightly below the previously estimated 25 million units, but the average reported price increased. The company expects shipments of MSM phone chips to come in at the middle of the previously forecast number, but expects an increase in the shipments in the coming quarter.

Commentators might have called the outlook mixed, but investors didn't react that way, sending the stock above $44.00 on strong volume. Wednesday, the stock paused, drifting down but holding above the 50 percent retracement of Tuesday's big gains. Volume proved lighter on Wednesday's pullback than on earlier gains. Perhaps the profit-taking mood was eased by a William Blair upgrade of QCOM to an outperform rating from a previous market perform rating.

New entries can be found on a bounce from anywhere above $43.00. Perhaps confirm strength in the XTC, the North American Telecoms Index.

Annotated Chart for QCOM:

Picked on Aug 27 at  41.00
Change since picked: +3.24
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 	10 million

Link to Current Quote QCOM

Teradyne Inc. - TER - close: 21.36 change: +0.13 stop: 19.95*new*

TER has been performing quite nicely over the past week, culminating with yesterday's breakout to a new 52-week closing high at $21.23. Wednesday's session certainly started out on a positive note, with the stock surging as high as $21.85 as the SOX once again probed above the $460 level. But the bulls couldn't maintain momentum and both the SOX and TER fell back at the end of the day. TER still managed to close in the green, with a 0.6% gain and is looking strong. That said, we want to protect against the possibility of a sharp round of selling, so we're raising our stop to $19.95 tonight, which is below both the 10-dma ($20.43) and the intraday lows from earlier in the week. Aggressive traders can consider new entries on a successful rebound from the 10-dma on an intraday pullback, looking for next resistance in the $22.50-23.00 area. We're still looking for an ultimate upside target of $25, which could be achieved rather quickly if the SOX actually manages to finally break free of resistance in the $460-470 area..

Picked on September 3rd at  $20.11
Change since picked          +1.25
Earnings Date             10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.81 mln

Link to Current Quote TER


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