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Bullish Play Updates Sunday, September 21, 2003

Corning, Inc. - GLW - cls: 10.00 change: +0.27 - stop: 8.98*new*

That's the kind of action we like to see in a new bullish play. GLW has gained almost 7 percent from Wednesday's closing price, and those gains have been confirmed by strong volume. Friday, GLW hit a new 52-week high, offering further bullish signs. MACD lines separate and turn up in full bullish run, and RSI continues up, too.

We've raised our stop to $8.98, just under the rising 10-dma and the midline of the rising regression channel. Conservative traders might like to move that stop closer to their entry level.

Now that GLW has hit $10.00, traders may see some of that hesitation we mentioned might occur at this level. If so, traders will have a new entry point on a pullback and bounce anywhere above $9.20. Momentum entries might be offered on a push through $10.00, but confirm volume on such a breakout.

Annotated Chart for GLW:


Picked on Sep 17 at   $9.35
Change since picked:  +0.65
Earnings Date:    07/21/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  6.8 million


Link to Current Quote GLW



Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.70 chng: -0.03 - stop: 8.99*new*

Thursday, ORB found support at the midline of its rising regression channel and climbed. During Friday's weak trading, ORB held its own. Stochastics curve back up again, but RSI hooked down slightly, producing mixed oscillator evidence. We've noticed that ORB often follows a big-candle day with several days of consolidation or a mild dip, so ORB may be beginning that same pattern again after Thursday's big gain. The DFI, the defense index, also treaded water on Friday, however, so ORB may merely have been following a closely linked sector's behavior.

Volume measured a light 228 thousand on Friday, consistent with a consolidation pattern. Oscillator evidence was mixed, as also often occurs with consolidation. If another period of consolidation is occurring, we do wish ORB had reached a higher high before beginning that consolidation, but perhaps greater weight should be given to ORB's higher weekly close, the highest since August, 2000.

New entries could be found on another pullback and bounce from the rising 10-dma and the midline of the regression channel, but those entries would not have much cushion before ORB hits expected hesitation at the $10.00 round-number resistance. Entries could also be sought on a breakout above $10.00, but confirm that volume expands on the breakout.

Annotated Chart for ORB:

Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.52
Earnings Date:    07/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand


Link to Current Quote ORB



Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 45.05 change: -0.68 - stop: 42.75

Friday started out with telecoms leading declines in overseas markets, so the stage was set for U.S. telecoms to experience a negative day. Then QCOM CEO Irwin Jacobs commented that China had decided to delay to 2004--and probably late 2004--the decision on next-generation mobile phones. China has been debating using QCOM's technology or a domestic version. While the news wasn't totally unexpected, it couldn't be characterized as good news.

QCOM retraced some of its recent gains, printing another inside-day candle, as did the XTC, the North American Telecoms Index. QCOM printed another inside-day candle earlier in the week. Traders who employed the inside-day technique, going long on a breakout above that inside-day high, benefited. This inside-day candle may provide another entry point. In fact, it may provide two. Traders could enter on a breakout above the inside-day high, but we would alter the technique in this case, counseling that traders wait for a breakout over $46.00 before triggering an inside-day long position. Another entry could be sought if QCOM declines below the inside-day low but bounces from above $43.00.

One difference shows up when studying Wednesday's inside-day candle and Friday's. Wednesday's candle did not retrace more than 50 percent of the previous day's candle. Friday's did, and it also closed slightly below that 50 percent retracement. The retracement wasn't far below the 50 percent level, so evidence is mixed, but a more than 50 percent retracement sometimes means that a further decline can be expected, so the pullback entry may be the one offered.

MACD remains strong. Stochastics and RSI continue trending in overbought territory, as often happens with a strongly trending stock. We've raised our stop to $42.75, just below the rising 10-dma at $43.21.

Annotated Chart for QCOM:


Picked on Aug 27 at  41.00
Change since picked: +4.05
Earnings Date:    07/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 	10 million


Link to Current Quote QCOM



Teradyne Inc. - TER - close: 22.00 change: +0.28 stop: 20.50

The Semiconductor index (SOX.X) may have been stymied by solid resistance near the $460 level once again last week, but that didn't stop our TER play from continuing to log new 52-week highs. After breaking above the early September highs just over $21, on Tuesday, the bulls just kept pushing to higher highs, right into the end of the week. Sure the price has been volatile, but that's convenient for those looking to enter on the pullbacks. Note that the long tail on Thursday's candle (down to $19.34) was the result of a single 3000 share transaction, and looks like a bad tick. Ignoring that trade, TER has been working higher in its ascending channel for over a month now. The top of the channel is currently at $23 (the site of our first major resistance), so conservative traders might want to harvest some gains near that level. The bottom of the channel is just over $20.50, making that level ideal placement for our stop. An intraday dip back to the $21 level can be used for a fresh entry point, with an eye towards achieving our final upside target of $25.

Picked on September 3rd at  $20.11
Change since picked          +1.89
Earnings Date             10/14/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.96 mln


Link to Current Quote TER



 

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