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Bullish Play Updates Wednesday, October 08, 2003

Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.56 chng: -0.11 - stop: 9.24

ORB made the finals--the finals of the competition to build Vietnam's first satellite. The decision should be made by the end of the year. Perhaps all that indecision showing up on the daily chart in the form of small-bodied candles and consolidation formations will be resolved once Hanoi announces its decision.

Depending on how the upper trendline is drawn and which candle shadows are included, the current consolidation pattern could be a rectangular consolidation with flat bottom and flat top, or a right triangle with a flat bottom and a descending top. The first is a continuation pattern, meaning that ORB would likely break to the upside since that was the direction it was headed before the pattern formed. The second is a reversal pattern, with the likely break to the downside.

As often happens with any consolidation pattern, oscillators give few clues. Possible lower highs show up on the oscillators, but those same lower highs show up on the price chart, too, so this is not divergence, bearish or otherwise.

The DFI.X, the AMEX Defense Index, also flattens, also printing a doji on Wednesday. Whatever ORB's pattern might be, it offers clear-cut levels for new entries and stops. New entries could be found on an upside break of the upper trendlines, now converging. However, since ORB has tentatively set its earnings release for October 15-17, we would not suggest new entries at this time. We set our stop at the lower trendline.

Annotated Chart for ORB:


Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.38
Earnings Date:    10/15/03-10/17/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand


Link to Current Quote ORB



Dendrite Int'l - DRTE - cls: 15.29 chng: -0.61 stop: 14.59

Helped along by the broad market strength, DRTE gave us a pretty convincing breakout over $16 last Friday, complete with a pattern of increasing volume. That bullish picture has been fading all week, with the stock heading sharply lower today for a loss of 3.8%. That slide dropped the stock back under the center-line of the rising channel and the next likely support levels are $15.00 and then again at $14.75. A rebound from either of those levels (preferably on strong volume) can be used for new entries, with the 30-dma ($14.71) likely to provide reinforcement to that support. Our stop is currently at $14.59, just under last week's intraday lows. If that level of support is broken, then we'll definitely want to be out of the play, as we would be faced with a violation of the pattern of higher lows. But until that happens, we'll continue to advocate buying the dips, looking for a move to our first target of $18.


Picked on September 24th at  $15.55
Change since picked           -0.26
Earnings Date              10/23/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        180 K


Link to Current Quote DRTE



 

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