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Bullish Play Updates Sunday, October 12, 2003

Orbital Sciences - ORB - cls: 9.48 chng: +0.03 - stop: 9.34*new*

Friday ORB's decline came to an end. At least we hope that's what happened. ORB retreated to its 30-dma, the moving average that has been supporting its climb since June. It tested the bottom of the rising channel that has also been supporting its climb since June. It closed above both although it also closed just below the 10-dma and 21-dma. The late-day climb turned RSI back up, although both MACD and stochastics remain bearish. Known as a leading indicator, RSI usually reacts first, although it does sometimes give false signals.

The Amex Defense Index DFI.X closed slightly down, printing a doji just above its 50-dma and below its 30-dma. Indicators also prove inconclusive for the DFI. Although ORB is not a component of the DFI, it often trades in tandem with the defense-related issues. Regardless of strength or weakness in these issues, we would not suggest new entries at this time because ORB tentatively scheduled its earnings release for October 15-17. We hope that test of ORB's 30-dma proves to be the beginning of a move up into earnings, but plan to exit Tuesday ahead of a possible earnings release on Wednesday.

Annotated Chart for ORB:

Picked on Sep 3 at   $9.18
Change since picked: +0.30
Earnings Date:    10/15/03-10/17/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  347 thousand

Link to Current Quote ORB


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