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Bullish Play Updates Wednesday, November 26, 2003

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 18.67 change: +0.04 stop: 16.90

It took a few days for our expected bounce to arrive, but JNPR launched higher on Monday and has been steadily adding to its gains through this holiday-shortened week. Key resistance at $19 is looming just overhead, reinforced by the midline of the ascending channel. A break above that point should have the bulls getting bolder and will set the stage for a rally up towards the top of the channel, now at $21. Intraday dips near the 20-dma ($18.21) have been finding buyers, so another rebound from that average looks good for new entries. Momentum entries can be considered on a break above $19, although it may be more prudent to wait for a push above the early November high ($19.38) before chasing JNPR higher. Raise stops to $17.20, which is just below last week's low, as well as the 50-dma ($17.31).

Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +0.98
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    10.2 mln

Link to Current Quote JNPR

Hercules Inc. - HPC - close: 10.40 change: -0.04 stop: 9.99

HPC keeps attempting to vault above our trigger, but hasn't yet been able to do so. RSI tilts over, perhaps indicating that HPC will need to retreat toward the grouped averages just below before making another assault on the trigger.

The trading pattern we see is a bullish right triangle, with the most probable resolution of that pattern being an upside breakout. Since HPC has been coming closer to the trigger each day, it's possible that it could rise just high enough to trigger the play before falling back into the triangle to regroup. Verify that volume expands and confirms the breakout before entering.

Annotated Chart for HPC:

Picked on Nov 14 at  10.36
Change since picked: +0.04
Earnings Date:    10/30/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  864 thousand

Link to Current Quote HPC

Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.11 change: 0.02 stop: 5.75

RAD reported this week that sales of THE CAT IN THE HAT movie-related goods had been strong at RAD stores. RAD sells exclusive designs developed in partnership with Universal Studios. That may be good news for RAD investors, as front-of-the-store items have higher margins. RAD lists a number of other holiday gift items in its promotions, hoping to cash in on the expected strong holiday sales.

Despite those expected strong holiday sales, retailers declined Wednesday, with drugstore companies such as RAD, WAG, and CVS all printing various versions of potential reversal signals. RAD's version was a gravestone doji, but RAD maintained prices above its 10-dma. Both RSI and stochastics still rise. Volume was only a little more than half average daily volume, typical of a consolidation day. Because of that doji, play participants or those considering entries might be watchful for an open Friday below the doji, as such an opening could signal a likely confirmation of the potential reversal signal. New participants should now wait until a volume-backed move over Friday's high, which would be a breakout above the descending trendline that had capped recent highs. We would like to see MACD turn up and volume expand on such a breakout. Others might prefer to wait for a breakout above the November 7 high of $6.33.

Annotated Chart for RAD (daily):

Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.16
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million

Link to Current Quote RAD

Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 20.32 change: +0.51 stop: 17.99

STLD climbed Wednesday on stronger-than-average daily volume, breaking back above $20.00 and achieving a new daily closing high. Volume had been rising throughout the week as STLD rose from its recently tested support. RSI turned up again and MACD hooked up, trying to make another bullish cross from above signal.

US Steel (X) also gained, with X's gains made on double average daily volume. Although our STLD play can be volatile due to the geopolitical factors that impact it, we're feeling good about its performance. New entries can be found at intraday bounces from above its 10-dma.

Annotated Chart for STLD:

Picked on Nov 12 at  19.78
Change since picked: +0.54
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  359 thousand

Link to Current Quote STLD


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