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Bullish Play Updates Sunday, November 30, 2003

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 18.87 change: +0.20 stop: 17.20

The lack of action in shares of JNPR on Friday was no great surprise given the holiday-shortened session. But the anemic volume didn't hold the stock back from inching ever closer to the $19 resistance level, which was the site of the highs in early October, as well as being the midline of the rising channel. Once JNPR breaks above that level, it should have the bulls setting their sights first on the $20 level and then the top of the channel, now at $21. Intraday dips near the 20-dma ($18.25) still look good for new entries, while momentum players can enter on the breakout into the upper half of the channel. Look for confirming strength from the Networking index (NWX.X), preferably breaking above $254 resistance before initiating momentum entries. Maintain stops at $17.20, just under the 50-dma ($17.35) and the lower channel line.


Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +1.18
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    10.2 mln


Link to Current Quote JNPR




Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.15 change: +0.04 stop: 5.75

When trading closed Wednesday, RAD had produced a gravestone doji, a possible reversal signal, and it had done so just under resistance. We counseled play participants to watch for an open below the doji as that could be a first sign that the reversal signal would be confirmed. RAD did open beneath the doji, but soon climbed. It took out Wednesday's high, too, but didn't quite move above the new descending trendline before prices retreated.

While Friday's action did not constitute either the completion of a reversal signal or an upside breakout, price action did maintain the bullish slant of RSI and stochastics, and kept the MACD from turning down. We wish Friday's candle had not had that small upper shadow that showed the pullback from resistance, but the candle was a strong one overall. We're guessing that Friday's post-holiday volume did not prove strong enough to boost the price above that trendline, but the shadow was not long enough to create much worry. When volume returns next week, we hope to see RAD push higher again.

RAD's 0.65 percent gain fell just beneath CVS's 0.73 percent gain, but well ahead of WAG's 0.08 percent gain. Those seeking new entries might watch for a break above the new ascending trendline.

Annotated Chart for RAD (daily):


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.20
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million


Link to Current Quote RAD




Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 20.02 change: -0.30 stop: 18.49*new*

Friday, the World Trade Organization postponed the showdown over the steel tariffs imposed by President Bush, tariffs that the WTO could decide to label illegal. Bush's administration asked for the postponement, raising speculation that the administration might take steps on its own to end or change the policy. The uncertainty produced a harami or inside-day candle on Friday's trade, with the close just above $20.00. As often happens when a stock produces a pattern that's indicative of indecision, the oscillators show a mixture of bullish and bearish characteristics. RSI, always fast to react, hooked down, while stochastics curved up from inside territory indicating overbought conditions. MACD remains flat, but appeared to be trying to curve up. Volume usually drops during any type of consolidation pattern. That tendency, coupled with the post-holiday weak volume, resulted in a day in which STLD traded less than 100,000 shares.

We're raising our stop just below the rising 30-dma. Conservative traders might watch the 10-dma, exiting if STLD drops below that average and below Wednesday and Friday's lows. A downside break of an inside day usually predicts more downside. However, less conservative traders might elect to watch for a test of the rising 30-dma, expecting that average to support STLD as it did throughout October. Those seeking new entries could enter on an upside break of the inside day.

Annotated Chart for STLD:


Picked on Nov 12 at  19.78
Change since picked: +0.24
Earnings Date:    10/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  359 thousand


Link to Current Quote STLD



 

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