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Market Sentiment, Thursday, 04/15/2004

Waiting for the Weekend
By J. Brown

The markets didn't do much on Thursday as investors still grappled with rising geo-political tensions and interest rate concerns, warranted or not. The strong earnings reports from TXN, AAPL and AMD on Wednesday night failed to inspire any buying save for a spike in shares of AAPL itself. Investors got another chance to buy the strong economic news when the Philly Fed survey and the NY Empire State index came out today. Both were strong but again the markets shrugged them off. Overall it seems like investors are erring on the side of caution. We even saw some heavy buying in drug stocks. This group was lead by a strong rise in Pfizer after a Deutsche bank analyst mentioned it as the best buy in the group but the rally was sector wide. Normally drugs are seen as a traditional "safe haven" play when investors worry about stocks turning south.

Earnings have been generally good but guidance was somewhat lackluster. IBM's report tonight was a prime example. Add the few earnings misses and suddenly investors aren't so eager to push stocks higher on earnings news alone. Be cautious and watch those stop losses.


Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8337
Current     : 10397

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10456
 50-dma: 10448
200-dma:  9904

	
S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  877
Current     : 1128

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1138
 50-dma: 1133
200-dma: 1066

		
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1039
Current     : 1459

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1481
 50-dma: 1458
200-dma: 1399

		


The volatility indices didn't do much, which was par for the 
course given the action in the major indices today.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.74 +0.12
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.24 -0.42
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 22.83 +1.24



Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.84 1,005,497 846,617 Equity Only 0.67 757,064 506,667 OEX 0.90 57,206 51,248 QQQ 3.73 30,536 113,948
Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 73.8 - 3 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 54.0 + 0 Bear Correction Dow Indust. 90.0 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 75.8 - 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 79.0 + 0 Bull Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
5-dma: 1.17 10-dma: 1.04 21-dma: 1.12 55-dma: 1.18 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points.
Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1419 1196 Decliners 1424 1941 New Highs 69 61 New Lows 100 24 Up Volume 906M 475M Down Vol. 978M 1455M Total Vol. 1895M 1945M M = millions
Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/06/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 There isn't much change to report in the Commercial traders' positions. They remain net short of the large S&P futures contracts. Small traders are virtually unchanged as well. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/16/04 454,635 449,505 5,130 0.6% 03/23/04 401,456 418,732 (17,273) (2.1%) 03/30/04 407,987 420,624 (12,673) (1.5%) 04/06/04 409,429 419,471 (10,042) (1.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 159,054 115,023 44,031 25.3% 03/23/04 130,648 89,943 40,705 18.5% 03/30/04 130,112 81,937 48,175 22.7% 04/06/04 130,262 80,174 50,088 23.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The S&P e-minis are seeing a bit more action with commercials increasing their short by 20K. In contrast the small trader has upped their longs, which is par for the course. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/16/04 472,809 574,241 (101,432) ( 9.7%) 03/23/04 268,647 294,930 (26,283) ( 4.7%) 03/30/04 265,492 305,797 (40,305) ( 7.1%) 04/06/04 270,904 328,862 (57,958) ( 9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 192,136 96,691 95,445 33.0% 03/23/04 131,879 59,210 72,669 38.0% 03/30/04 123,494 59,550 63,944 35.0% 04/06/04 148,737 46,235 102,502 52.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Hmm.... commercial traders have erased the one-week surge in short contracts flipping them back to net long for the NASDAQ. Meanwhile small traders are reducing longs and upping their shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 68,285 54,899 13,386 10.9% 03/23/04 52,014 34,017 17,997 20.9% 03/30/04 52,749 67,967 (15,218) (12.6%) 04/06/04 54,862 34,762 20,100 22.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 27,859 18,333 9,526 20.6% 03/23/04 9,884 12,887 (3,003) (13.2%) 03/30/04 8,928 16,551 (7,623) (30.0%) 04/06/04 7,971 20,721 (12,750) (44.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Very little change in commercial traders' positions for the Dow futures. Small traders have turned a bit more negative. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 32,317 17,514 14,803 29.7% 03/23/04 23,048 22,119 929 2.1% 03/30/04 23,642 22,180 1,462 3.2% 04/06/04 23,101 22,108 993 2.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 10,002 20,970 (10,968) (35.4%) 03/23/04 8,344 6,734 1,610 10.7% 03/30/04 7,020 6,711 309 2.3% 04/06/04 7,316 8,085 (769) (5.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03


 

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