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Market Sentiment, Tuesday, 06/01/2004

Market Unshaken
By James Brown

The first trading day of June was amazing but not for its gains. The major averages traded mostly sideways save for a last hour rally. No, Tuesday was amazing because we closed positive. News that there was a terrorist rampage in Saudi Arabia that left 22 people dead sent the price of oil to a new all-time high above $42 a barrel. It was only a week ago that oil hit its previous high and sent investors scurrying for cover. The fact that investors shrugged off both another terrorist attack, granted it was overseas, and a new high in oil is impressive and bodes well for the rest of the month assuming the jobs number doesn't surprise us.

Economics were also part of today's recipe. The better than expected ISM manufacturing number erased any fears that the economy might be slowing down. Plus the U.S. construction figures hit its third all-time high in a row. Economists were looking for 0.4% growth but we got 1.3% growth.

Buyers were rotating into biotechs, natural gas, oil and healthcare. Yet today's biggest gains were in the Internet stocks with a 1.68% jump in the INX Internet index. Airlines were big losers, understandably so with the rise in oil. Broker- dealers and gold stocks followed them lower. Overall market internals were mixed to bullish. Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by a small margin on the NYSE and 17 to 14 on the NASDAQ. Up volume outweighed down volume on the NASDAQ but down volume edged past up volume on the NYSE. Overall volume remained light.

Wall Street will continue to focus on economics this week. Tomorrow brings the auto and truck sales while Thursday will unveil a number of reports with the ISM services leading the list. We'll also hear from Intel at their mid-quarter update on Thursday night. Of course Friday is the big day with the non- farm payrolls (a.k.a. jobs report) for May. Looming large next week is the G8 summit in Georgia, which many feel is a big target for terrorist and could have investors on the defensive.


Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8851
Current     : 10202

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10059
 50-dma: 10246
200-dma: 10068

	
S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  960
Current     : 1121

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1104
 50-dma: 1116
200-dma: 1086

		
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1180
Current     : 1468

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1431
 50-dma: 1439
200-dma: 1427

		



CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.30 +0.80
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.64 +0.82
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 22.57 +1.24


Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.94 500,343 467,935 Equity Only 0.73 422,150 306,293 OEX 1.72 14,392 24,797 QQQ 3.39 26,875 91,066
Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 64.1 + 0 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 38.0 + 0 BULL ALERT Dow Indust. 66.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 60.6 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 60.0 - 1 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
5-dma: 0.78 10-dma: 0.83 21-dma: 0.95 55-dma: 1.08 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points.
Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1439 1672 Decliners 1373 1373 New Highs 63 68 New Lows 29 15 Up Volume 717M 727M Down Vol. 774M 686M Total Vol. 1505M 1431M M = millions
Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/25/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Not much movement from the commercial traders. It looks like they shifted a handful of money from shorts to longs. Conversely the small traders have rotated some money from longs to shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 05/04/04 397,964 417,175 (19,211) (2.4%) 05/11/04 401,365 421,672 (20,307) (2.5%) 05/18/04 394,352 423,258 (28,906) (3.5%) 05/25/04 400,713 420,764 (20,051) (2.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/04/04 137,112 80,201 56,911 21.6% 05/11/04 135,534 76,987 58,547 27.5% 05/18/04 139,647 74,597 65,050 30.4% 05/25/04 136,086 79,060 57,026 26.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 There was a big drop in longs by the commercial traders but it was coupled with a significant drop in shorts too. They remain net bullish on the S&P 500. Small traders have grown net bearish after last week's bullish reading. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 05/04/04 316,840 370,781 (53,941) ( 7.8%) 05/11/04 378,696 362,887 15,809 2.1% 05/18/04 390,484 357,157 33,327 4.5% 05/25/04 353,722 336,406 17,316 2.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/04/04 119,308 74,407 44,901 23.2% 05/11/04 101,199 94,408 6,791 3.5% 05/18/04 62,216 87,269 25,053 16.8% 05/25/04 91,515 100,759 ( 9,244) ( 4.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders have upped their long positions and remain net bullish on the NDX. Small traders have likewise upped their short positions and remain net bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 54,196 33,948 20,248 23.0% 05/04/04 56,931 35,209 21,722 23.6% 05/18/04 58,376 37,528 20,848 21.8% 05/25/04 59,891 37,630 22,261 22.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 22,261 - 05/25/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/04/04 10,247 24,764 (14,517) (41.5%) 05/11/04 9,716 21,072 (11,356) (36.9%) 05/18/04 9,843 18,935 ( 9,092) (31.6%) 05/25/04 10,184 20,653 (10,469) (33.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (14,517) - 05/04/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders are adding to their short positions while small traders are adding to their longs, which is generally par for the course. Guess who is right more often? Yup, the commercial traders. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 05/04/04 24,296 22,181 2,115 4.6% 05/11/04 22,614 21,507 1,107 2.5% 05/18/04 22,257 22,444 ( 187) (0.4%) 05/25/04 23,578 24,632 (1,045) (2.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 05/04/04 6,262 8,155 (1,893) ( 9.2%) 05/11/04 7,009 7,640 ( 631) ( 4.3%) 05/18/04 9,098 6,591 2,507 16.0% 05/25/04 9,623 6,614 3,009 18.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03


 

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