Market Wrap

Market Sentiment

Intraday Updates

Market Watch



Current Play List

Watch List

Trading Ideas

Email Version


Tech Stocks

New Plays

Play Updates

Closed Plays


Active Trader

New Plays

Play Updates

Closed Plays


High Risk/
Rewards


New Plays

Play Updates

Closed Plays


Stock Splits

New Plays

Expected Splits

Play Updates

Closed Plays

Announcements

Split Calendar

Split Candidates

New Candidates

Splits 101


Long-Term Plays

Tech Stocks

Non-Tech Stocks




Ask the Analyst

Bailey's Basics

Learning Center

Trader's Corner

Options Primer

Options 101

Splits 101

Trading 101

Bookstore

Glossary



Charts

Live Charts

Dow 30 charts

Economic Calendar

Arms Index Charts



Terms of Service

Disclaimer

Contact Us

Advertise

EMAIL THIS PAGE TO A FRIEND!
Market Sentiment, Sunday, 10/31/2004

Forget it!
By James Brown

It was a busy day on Friday. The +3.7% GDP number came in less than the expected +4.3% growth rate but above the previous reading's +3.3% rate. Consumer sentiment soared from 87.5 to 91.7 when economists were looking for a drop to 85. Plus, the PMI index vaulted to a very strong reading, which is a nice change from the pattern of positive but slow growth economic data. After the closing bell a new Osama Bin Laden tape surfaced just before the election, which could raise terror fears when combined with the earlier English speaking terror tape released this past week.

Yet through it all investors are focused on one thing. Forget the GDP. Forget consumer sentiment. Forget oil near $50 a barrel. Forget the PMI and forget Osama. Right now the markets are focused on Tuesday's election and only Tuesday's election. This alone is likely to keep trading somewhat subdued for the next two sessions.

You've heard it before and you'll probably hear it again. The markets hate uncertainty. Right now there couldn't be much more uncertainty about who will win Tuesday's race. With that in mind I think stocks did pretty well last week. However, imagine the uncertainty if there is no clear winner on Tuesday night? That's right, if the election is tied up in recounts and lawsuits for the next couple of months there could be no post-election rally.

Let's assume, no, let's hope that there is a winner come Wednesday morning. If that is the case then we could be in for a strong year-end. Historically we're stepping into the best two months of the year through November and December.

Keep your fingers crossed for a strong turn out on Tuesday and get out there and vote!


Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)
52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9497
Current     : 10027

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9903
 50-dma: 10109 
200-dma: 10257

	
S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1130

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1111
 50-dma: 1115
200-dma: 1119

		
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1486

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1459
 50-dma: 1419
200-dma: 1438

		



CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.27 +0.88
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.57 +1.11
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.90 +0.65 


Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.73 768,397 561,320 Equity Only 0.60 629,879 378,292 OEX 0.88 18,563 16,120 QQQ 1.25 61,220 76,802
Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 64.0 + 0.2 Bear Correction NASDAQ-100 52.0 + 1 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 50.0 - 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 62.0 + 0.6 Bear Correction S&P 100 60.0 + 0 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend
5-dma: 0.85 10-dma: 0.94 21-dma: 1.01 55-dma: 1.02 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points.
Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1554 1504 Decliners 1234 1535 New Highs 166 119 New Lows 24 37 Up Volume 1052M 773M Down Vol. 722M 831M Total Vol. 1823M 1642M M = millions
Commitments Of Traders Report: 10/26/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders don't seem willing to place any big directional bets ahead of the Nov. 2nd election. The longs and shorts are pretty much dead even. Small traders are also narrowing their bullish bias a bit. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 421,217 435,736 (14,519) (1.7%) 10/12/04 423,472 436,780 (13,308) (1.5%) 10/19/04 432,945 441,041 ( 8,096) (0.1%) 10/26/04 441,263 445,992 ( 4,729) (0.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 137,210 114,489 22,721 9.0% 10/12/04 139,175 113,903 25,272 9.9% 10/19/04 147,148 124,827 22,321 8.2% 10/26/04 138,201 121,275 16,926 6.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials have added to their longs and reduced some shorts but they remain strongly net bearish here. Small traders reduced both their longs and shorts with almost no change in their bias. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 10/05/04 248,190 476,608 (228,418) (31.5%) 10/12/04 258,457 517,805 (259,348) (33.4%) 10/19/04 264,860 531,541 (266,681) (33.4%) 10/26/04 276,128 509,552 (233,424) (29.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 308,021 80,373 227,648 58.6% 10/12/04 309,720 62,502 247,218 66.4% 10/19/04 353,903 66,027 287,876 68.5% 10/26/04 345,908 64,061 281,847 68.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is still very little change in commercials' NDX positions. Actually there is very little change in the small-traders' positions too. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 55,640 32,872 22,768 25.7% 10/12/04 52,572 32,775 19,797 23.2% 10/19/04 52,630 31,940 20,690 24.4% 10/26/04 53,233 31,323 21,910 26.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 12,254 30,693 (18,439) (42.9%) 10/12/04 8,756 24,400 (15,644) (47.2%) 10/19/04 10,462 25,243 (14,781) (41.3%) 10/26/04 10,521 25,388 (14,867) (42.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders hedged their bets even more ahead of the Nov. 2nd election so there is no clear up or downside bias. Small traders remain net bullish after the big change two weeks ago. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 27,498 25,772 1,726 3.2% 10/12/04 24,150 22,849 1,301 2.7% 10/19/04 25,385 24,213 1,172 2.3% 10/26/04 25,707 24,855 852 1.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 10/05/04 5,531 5,539 ( 8) ( 0.0%) 10/12/04 8,814 9,167 ( 353) ( 1.9%) 10/19/04 8,327 6,015 2,312 16.1% 10/26/04 8,405 6,336 2,069 14.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03


 

Terms of Service Disclaimer Privacy Policy Contact Us
Copyright 2001 PremierInvestor.net - Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form